NATO Member Turkey submitted a formal request to join BRICS

Turkey has officially expressed its desire to join the BRICS group of developing countries, a sign that the country is increasingly looking east for cooperation, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

Read more on the topic here: What exactly is BRICS?

After the Second World War, Turkey has tried to build strong relations with Western countries – it has been a member of NATO since 1952, and since 2005 talks have been held to join the European Union. The application to BRICS shows that the superpower of 85 million people, sandwiched between the Middle East and Europe, is changing course somewhat.

The view of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration is that the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting away from advanced economies, the people familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity.

The country’s new diplomatic direction shows that it wants to establish good relations with all parties in a geopolitically increasingly multipolar world. At the same time, they also want to fulfill their obligations as a NATO member, people said.

Turkey made a formal request to join a few months ago, and part of the reason for this was the fact that talks to join the European Union have not yielded any results, they added.

Turkey has also maintained strong ties with Russia since the Ukraine war that began in 2022, which has widened the gap with the West

The Turkish Foreign Ministry and the president refused to comment on the allegations.

Juggling Between West and East

“If Turkey simultaneously strengthens its relations with both the West and the East, we have the potential to become a very strong, prosperous and influential country,” Erdogan said in a speech in Istanbul this weekend. “All other methods are not useful for Turkey and will harm it.”

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are among the members of BRICS, named after the acronyms of English country names, and many important emerging economies. Earlier this year, four new countries – Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt – joined the association. Saudi Arabia has also been invited to the association, but the country has not yet made a decision.

Admission of the new member states is likely to be discussed at a summit in Russia in late October, people familiar with the matter said. Malaysia, Thailand and Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan have also shown interest in BRICS.

According to core members, BRICS offers an alternative to largely Western-led institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). New members can finance various projects and expand mutual trade relations and political cooperation through the Community Development Bank.

Erdogan’s home party has long accused Western countries of preventing Turkey from creating an independent defense industry and a strong economy. Turkey has also expressed interest in joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which was created by China and Russia as a counterweight to NATO.

“We don’t have to choose between the European Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as some people claim,”

Erdogan said

“On the contrary, we need to strengthen relationships with both and other organizations, and the basis of this is that everyone wins.”

The expansion of BRICS has been mainly stimulated by China, which wants to expand its global influence and also include countries that have traditionally been allies of the United States.

Negotiations for Joining the EU Have Been Held for Almost 20 Years

Turkey has been holding talks to join the European Union since 2005

However, several obstacles have arisen, for example, EU leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the shortcomings of Turkish democracy.

Turkish leaders believe that joining the BRICS will help improve economic relations with both China and Russia. It also makes it possible to become a trade intermediary between Europe and Central Asia. Turkey wants to be a transit country for gas exports from Russia and Central Asia.

Erdogan’s administration has also tried to attract investment from Chinese electric car manufacturers, who could potentially use the customs union between Turkey and the EU to gain access to the European market.

“BRICS is an organization with many different approaches, identities and policies in the global economic system,”

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said after a meeting with BRICS foreign ministers in June

Tavex Analysis Comment

Turkey’s desire to join the BRICS (or Shanghai Cooperation Organization) is a very significant development, as no other NATO member or candidate country of the European Union has done so before. Turkey’s approach to global geopolitical polarization is unique in the world context, and it will be very interesting to see what exactly it turns out to be. Such an attitude in West-East polarization is geographically logical, because the country is located at the hub of an increasingly multipolar world.

The four countries that joined BRICS this year have a total population of more than 330 million people.

When Turkey joins, five countries with a total population of more than 400 million people have joined the association this year

The total volume of the economies of the five core BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – exceeded that of the G7 countries (USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Canada) for the first time in 2021 based on purchasing power parity. Back in 1980, the difference in favor of the G7 countries was more than threefold.

It is true that the Russian economy has not fared so well – while in 1980 it made up 4.8 percent of the world economy based on purchasing power parity (China and India together made up 5.3 percent), now it has dropped to 3 percent. On the other hand, the share of China and India has increased to a total of 18.6 percent. This shows that the economic power of the BRICS has mainly grown due to the rampant expansion of the economies of China and India. The corresponding indicator in Turkey has increased from 1.2 percent to 2.1 percent in 44 years.

However, the current state of the Turkish economy is not good. In July, annual inflation reached more than 60 percent, and the average annual price increase in the country over the past ten years has been nearly 20 percent. Despite high inflation, Turkey’s economy has grown rapidly in recent decades, and based on purchasing power parity, its volume is currently comparable to that of France, for example.

Similar to China and India, Turkey has also sharply increased its gold reserves since the end of the 2010s, which reflects the fact that, financially, it is moving along the same path as the BRICS countries. Turkey has been very active in the gold market in recent years, being the biggest buyer one month and the biggest seller the next. The sales side is mainly when there is a shortage of metal on the domestic market. In 2023, Turkey’s investment gold retail market was the third largest in the world after China and India, surpassing the volumes of both Europe and the United States.

Compared to other countries, Turkey also has a very small debt burden (approx. 30% of GDP) and the share of the public sector in the economy (government spending) is also rather modest compared to the developed world (also approx. 30% of GDP). If Turkey can get its finances and monetary policy in order, keep the lira exchange rate stable, and simultaneously develop good economic relations with both the West and the East, the country can become one of the most important economic powers in the world by the middle of this century.