Gold's Price Rise in September Was The Biggest in 14 years

In September, the price of gold climbed at its fastest pace in 14 years, rising nearly 12 percent in just one month. The surge was driven by falling interest rates, a weaker dollar, worsening national financial conditions, and a sharp increase in investor demand.

In the final days of September, prices received an additional boost as the U.S. government faced the threat of a shutdown over the debt ceiling.

From a longer-term perspective, gold had remained supported by several fundamental trends: mounting financial and budgetary problems, record debt burdens, escalating geopolitical tensions, the erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status, and record levels of central bank gold purchases.

In the short term, a correction in October–November appeared likely. This expectation was reinforced by the technical outlook for the dollar, which suggested that, after a sharp decline earlier in the year, some recovery could follow. Over the long term, however, gold continued to trend upward, and projections indicated a price of $6,000–$7,000 per ounce by 2030.

By this point in the year, gold had appreciated 48 percent in dollar terms and 31 percent in euro terms, reflecting the dollar’s relative weakness against the euro

Records Arrived Sooner Than Expected

In a gold market analysis from early August, $3,440 was identified as a major resistance level. It was noted that, if this threshold were broken and the April record of $3,500 also fell, the bullish cycle would accelerate, carrying prices into the $3,650–$3,700 range.

That scenario unfolded exactly as described. In September, gold rose 11.92 percent in dollar terms, the fastest monthly increase since August 2011. The rally continued into October, with gold already trading at $3,888.

In euro terms, gold advanced 11.45 percent in September, the strongest monthly gain since January 2015. By October 1, the price stood at €3,316.

Other precious metals also showed record highs alongside gold bullion. Silver also delivered remarkable gains, soaring 17.4 percent in dollar terms in September alone.

What Drove Gold Higher?

Several forces fueled gold’s advance in recent months. First, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, with further cuts anticipated in October and December.

Second, investors returned strongly to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In September, inflows totaled 114.6 tonnes, the second-highest figure in three years – just shy of the 115-tonne record set in April. Comparable inflows had last been seen in early 2022 during the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

The Dollar Poised for a Partial Recovery

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the currency against six major peers, dropped 9.9 percent this year to 97.8 points – the steepest annual decline since 2003. This sharp fall contributed to gold’s rapid ascent, since a weaker dollar makes gold more affordable in other currencies, thereby boosting demand.

Interest rates also declined significantly

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell from 4.57 percent at the start of the year to 4.13 percent. Traditionally, government bond yields competed with gold, but since late 2022 that link had weakened: gold rose even as rates remained high.

Why a Short-Term Correction Appeared Likely

A short-term correction in gold seemed probable, mainly due to expectations of a dollar rebound. For the past decade, the dollar had traded within an upward channel, and by late 2025 it had reached the lower boundary. Since interest rate cuts were likely already priced in, a rebound was possible unless the dollar broke below this range, in which case gold would likely rise even faster.

From the May lows, gold had surged 25 percent in just four and a half months, with the steepest climb occurring after August 20. Historically, such rapid advances were often followed by corrections.

Still, gold remained in a long-term upward trend. Prices could reach the $6,000–$7,000 range by 2030. For investors, short-term corrections represented attractive buying opportunities, though waiting for them carried risks, as their timing and depth could not be predicted with certainty.

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Silver’s Rally Outpaced Gold

Silver outperformed even gold this year, climbing 64 percent in dollar terms to $47.3 per ounce

In June, there was detailed analysis of silver’s price, noting that a decisive break above the $34.5–$36 resistance range would open the path to $45–$50. That forecast materialised, and silver now trades within that range.

Looking ahead, two scenarios were plausible. First, the $49–$50 level- where major peaks occurred in both 1980 and 2011 – could act as a strong resistance point, leading to sideways movement or a temporary pullback. Second, if silver decisively broke above $50 and held, the rally could accelerate sharply, pushing prices toward $60–$70 and reducing the gold-to-silver ratio.

The first scenario appeared more likely in the near term, with the $50 threshold acting as a barrier for the third time. A correction seemed probable, but it was expected to be brief. By the end of this year or the first half of next year, silver was likely to break above $50.